Fall of the Canadian Government - odds posted

Being a gambler and a political junkie, I have decided to post odds on the fall of the Canadian Government:
- Last full 4 years, normal dissolution of parliament 20 : 1 - Not going to happen. Even when they had big majorities, the Liberals have twice brought us to the polls early as keeping-power moves, once to ambush Stockwell day and once due to an internal power struggle.
- Liberals dissolve parliament early (2-3 years) 2 : 1 - Odds on favourite. See previous note. Also precedent in the early 70s with one of Trudeau's governments.
- Introduction of no-confidence motion by oppostion over sponsorship scandal 4 : 1 - I think this one is more plausible than it is given credit. The only thing that can bring the government down is a combined attack by the conservatives and the bloc. But the bloc is left of the liberals and the conservatives are right of the liberals, and it is difficult to imagine what they would agree on. The bloc have pretty much maxed out the number of seats they can get, so there is no advantage in bringing down the government. Unless you had something that insulted Quebecers and was an affront to their honour. Something like massive corruption, bribery, and underhanded interference in their democratic refrendum. Something like the sponsorhip inquiry.
- Confidence motion on same-sex marriage 50 : 1 - NDP, Bloc, most of the Liberals, some of the conservatives - not going to happen.
- Budget 8 : 1 - Media loves this option but it is unlikely. Bloc, NDP are even more big-government oriented than the Liberals. Conservatives are for small government. None of the opposition parties will ever agree on the same budget strategy.

There is no superfecta, trifecta, or quintella betting on this race. Daily Double is in effect.